Track current 5/1 ARM Rate and find the lowest available rate for your situation.
Current 5/1 ARM Rate rates are averaging 6.38% as of December 2024, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. ARM rates start lower than fixed rates but adjust after the initial period. The 5/1 ARM is fixed for 5 years then adjusts annually.
ARM pricing operates on fundamentally different mechanics than fixed-rate products, since you're really pricing two things: the initial discounted period and the future fully-indexed rate.
The 50-year average for 30-year fixed rates is approximately 7.7% (Freddie Mac data). Today's rates, while elevated compared to the 2020–2021 pandemic lows (which touched 2.65%), are near or below the long-term historical average. Buyers waiting for 3–4% rates again may wait a very long time.
The large majority of ARMs originated since 2023 use SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) as the index, having transitioned away from LIBOR, which was phased out by regulators. Some older ARMs still outstanding may reference LIBOR-successor rates per their original contract terms, but new originations are essentially all SOFR-indexed now.
It depends entirely on your holding period. If you're confident you'll sell or refinance before the initial fixed period ends (5, 7, or 10 years depending on the ARM type), the risk of an unfavorable adjustment is largely moot. If there's meaningful uncertainty about your timeline, the fixed-rate certainty may be worth the higher starting rate.
Yes, and many ARM borrowers do exactly this — refinancing into a new fixed-rate or new ARM product before the first adjustment date if the rate environment has changed favorably, or simply to lock in payment certainty. This involves standard refinance closing costs and full underwriting, the same as any other refinance.